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Abstract

A country’s exchange rate is a fickle instrument used to stabilize its economic status. The utility and impact of this instrument is amplified for developing countries, as the volatile nature of their exchange rates can have a more profound impact on a fragile economy. Further, developing countries that are export dependent, especially commodity dependent, have proven to respond to limited variables such as inflation and interest. This paper explores the influence of commodity price on commodity-dependent developing countries, and how it may differ for non-commodity-dependent countries. The paper looks at a 65 developing countries and restricts them based on commodity-dependency and then models the change in their exchange rate using commodity price, inflation, and interest as independent variables. The conclusion is that commodity price and inflation has significant explanatory power for modeling exchange rate changes for commodity-dependent countries. The policy implications for the results are discussed.

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