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Abstract
This thesis proves that the yield spread, between the 10-year Treasury Bond and the 3-month Treasury Bill ("my spread") is able to explain roughly 5% of the variation in real, quarterly GDP growth rates, four-quarters in the future. It also demonstrates that a yield spread of this maturity-combination is marginally more predictive than the other, commonly used spread, between the 10-year Treasury Bond and the 1-year Treasury Bond.