In North American bird species, breeding distributions are shifting north toward the poles with climate change (Hitch and Leberg 2007). Habitat type could act as a better predictor of shifts in the breeding distributions of territorial birds than elevation or temperature gradients alone, as both an individual's breeding performance and adult survival depend on habitat suitability (Reif et al. 2010). Using models that predict how the vegetative structure will change in a tundra landscape, we can predict how territorial bird distributions might change alongside a warming climate as a factor of habitat type. This study makes population and bird species richness projections for tundra-breeding birds based on their habitat preference at the Primus Creek study site in the Noatak National Preserve, Alaska.