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Abstract

This paper adds to the exploration of the factors that influence free agent signings in the NHL. The idea that signing high-caliber unrestricted free agents in the NHL leads to long-term success is common in the world of hockey, despite the lack of statistical evidence to support it. Using annual data between the 2011-2012 and 2016-2017 NHL seasons, this study utilizes probability-based models and a nonlinear binomial regression to analyze the factors that influence unrestricted free agent signings. The results from this study show that teams’ needs at specific positions, the number of unrestricted free agents available, and playoff qualifying have the most significant impacts on unrestricted free agent signings during this period of time. Like prior research, this study suggests that free agent signings can alter a team’s performance in the subsequent season, but true statistical evidence is not present to quantify unrestricted free agent value, nor teams’ suitability for a player.

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