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Abstract

As the global mean sea level continues to rise due to climate change, tsunamis are projected to increase in intensity and frequency, which will disproportionately impact coastal communities globally. Numerous countries have been affected by long-term, negative impacts to their groundwater resources from tsunami-induced saltwater intrusion. Accordingly, it is important to develop effective methods for assessing risk of tsunami-induced saltwater intrusion in order to promote natural disaster preparedness and response strategies. This study evaluates how the integration of high-resolution probabilistic tsunami design-zone maps and risk assessment maps can be used to predict the extent and risk level of tsunami-induced saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers on the Island of Maui in Hawaii, USA. I created tsunami design zone (TDZ) maps in ArcGIS Pro using a digital elevation model, the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) method, and the non-hydrostatic NEOWAVE model. The resulting maps depicted flooding extent, flooding duration, and flooding depth. I also created a series of risk assessment maps based on several hypothesized drivers of saltwater-intrusion risk, including aquifer characteristics, topography, land cover, and well density data, to conduct a qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. Overall, I found that the census-designated places of Kahului and Kihei–Makena are extremely vulnerable to tsunami-induced saltwater intrusion. The combined use of probabilistic tsunami design zone maps and risk assessment maps, as described in this study, has the potential to serve as a useful tool to assist local governments and emergency and response management teams. As climate change continues to cause more severe tsunami-related impacts, Maui and other coastal regions around the world will become increasingly vulnerable to tsunami-induced saltwater intrusion, making the utilization of probabilistic tsunami design zone maps and risk assessment maps essential for long-term hazard preparedness and mitigation.

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