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Abstract

Arid grasslands can self-organize into periodic patterns of vegetated groves and bare intergroves via positive feedback where vegetation increases local infiltration rate coupled with feedback where groves deplete downslope sheet flow, creating stripes of bare ground. This study investigated the shift from homogenous to patterned vegetation in its early stages of development in a short grass steppe in South Central CO due to a precipitation change and the recent emergence of period patches. To understand the mechanics behind this transition, we studied patterns in grass mortality, surface and soil properties, and the spatial relationships between these variables, water and sediment transport, and grass health. Intergroves were found to have a higher and smoother slope than groves. There were significant differences in deep soil properties across groups, with the highest mean bulk density in intergroves and the highest mean water content in interstitial pools. Spatial analysis in ArcGIS showed increasing maximum NDVI with vegetation and decreasing maximum NDVI with intergrove cover, as well as decreasing maximum NDVI with distance from interstitial pools, and vegetation and interstitial pool cover significantly predicted maximum NDVI. Because the residuals are autocorrelated, we proceeded with spatial lag models which suggested strong autocorrelation of error and a neighborhood impact of NDVI on itself. The results suggest that with sheet flow, sediment is eroded from intergroves and deposited in groves, forming a stepped horizontal profile. Runoff collects and infiltrates in interstitial pools, redistributing additional water to the grove. Thus, the emerging self-organization improves community water use efficiency, increasing the system’s resilience to drought in the face of climate change.

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