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Abstract

Arid grasslands represent 12.5% of North American land cover and blue grama grass (Bouteloua gracilis) is the dominant species in cover and primary production on this landscape. In the shortgrass steppe of eastern Colorado, blue grama has experienced a significant biomass reduction in conjunction with several significant droughts beginning in 2002. Our study site at Chico Basin Ranch (in between Pueblo and Colorado Springs, CO) developed a self-organized banded vegetation pattern over the same temporal scale. Self-organized vegetation patterns often present in landscapes experiencing adverse conditions as a mechanism of optimizing water management so that bare patches streamline incoming water flow towards vegetated patches. Using on-the-ground land cover surveys and a comparison of NDVI from 2023 and 2020 aerial images, this study seeks to determine that this pattern is formed by periodic bands of dying vegetation. Aggregate mean data from transect land cover surveys reveals an overall system trend of two living grass coverage peaks on either side of the transect, and three offset peaks in between with senescing grass cover peaking first, then dead grass, and finally bare ground. The statistically significant relationships between adjacent land cover peaks at various spatial lags indicates the overall direction of the system with the downslope edges of groves dying and eventually eroding to bare ground. Taken individually, survey transects can be broadly sorted into categories based level of vegetation organization within the pattern framework: Type I “messy” transects, which present an inverse relationship between interspersed living and dead grass patches, Type II which have developed a distinct band of upslope living grass and a downslope dead grass band, and Type III in which a portion of the downslope dead grass band has eroded to bare ground. Analysis of NDVI change from 2020 to 2023 reveals how these stripes develop over time, with growth remaining concentrated on the upslope edge of vegetated bands and declining grass health or density remaining on the downslope edge of vegetation, underlining the pre-existing pattern. Based on these results, we conclude that the banded pattern is formed by concentrated blue grama growth along the upslope edge of vegetated bands, with the remaining downslope grass bands eventually dying and eroding to bare ground. This pattern is self-perpetuating, as over the past three years, grass presence has facilitated further growth and grass loss led to a less suitable surrounding habitat. While there are research gaps in blue grama mechanisms of senescence and death in response to drought, it is likely that these periodic patterns of death were initiated by the compounding effects of unusually long-term drought.

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