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Abstract

Each year football clubs are tasked with finding players on the market to improve their team. Teams are trying to maximize competitive performance while constrained by their respective budgets. Established football clubs use player statistics developed this century to better predict future performances of players. This study builds on existing literature by examining performances of attacking players following a transfer to the English Premier League (EPL). The main variable in the model to explain productivity in the year after a transfer to the EPL is non penalty expected goals plus expected assisted goals per 90. Other variables including player value as measured by transfer fee or market value, and where a player was transferred from are included in the model. Results from Random Effects and annual Fixed Effects (FE) OLS and 2SLS models find that age is not statistically significant when determining player performance. However, both the Transfer Fee and Market value which are modelled as a function of the player’s most recent performance before the transfer are significant in explaining productivity after the transfer to the EPL.

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