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Abstract
Each year football clubs are tasked with finding players on the market to improve their team.
Teams are trying to maximize competitive performance while constrained by their respective
budgets. Established football clubs use player statistics developed this century to better predict
future performances of players. This study builds on existing literature by examining
performances of attacking players following a transfer to the English Premier League (EPL). The
main variable in the model to explain productivity in the year after a transfer to the EPL is non
penalty expected goals plus expected assisted goals per 90. Other variables including player
value as measured by transfer fee or market value, and where a player was transferred from are
included in the model. Results from Random Effects and annual Fixed Effects (FE) OLS and
2SLS models find that age is not statistically significant when determining player performance.
However, both the Transfer Fee and Market value which are modelled as a function of the
player’s most recent performance before the transfer are significant in explaining productivity
after the transfer to the EPL.