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Abstract
As a result of compounding climate change impacts and ineffective environmental management, vulnerable forest ecosystems are experiencing high levels of degradation. This is particularly true of regions in the Western US such as Colorado, where the expansive forests of the Rocky Mountains are being devastated by large-scale wildfire outbreaks and bark beetle infestations. To identify sites for reforestation projects, six factors (erosion, land use and land cover [LULC], position in the watershed, soil taxonomy, slope, and precipitation) affecting forest generation success were weighed according to expert opinion derived from previous literature in a multi criteria evaluation (MCE) analysis. A comprehensive site suitability map was then generated in ArcGIS Pro using weighted linear summation (WLS) of each attribute. Furthermore, to incentive policy outcomes, a valuation of future carbon sequestered through reforestation was estimated using the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model. Using the previous site suitability map three likely policy scenarios (business-as-usual, limited reforestation, and extensive reforestation) were proposed with their respective carbon sequestration benefits being estimated from 2040-2100. LULC raster layers were generated for the present day as well as each policy scenario, and carbon pool data across four pools (aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, organic soil carbon, and dead matter) was assigned to each LULC classification. Carbon stock increases and decreases were therefore determined based on LULC classification modifications across the current and future maps and valued according to several economic parameters set forth in the InVEST model. Eighteen different simulations were run in the model to test each policy scenario, three different market and social discount rates (7%, 3% and 1%), and two different annual carbon price changes (5% and 0%). Estimated benefits ranged from 820−846 million for the limited action scenario and 5.35−5.53 billion for the extensive action scenario based on avoided social cost of carbon. These results could promote more effective reforestation policy at a state level and encourage discussion of the numerous ecological and economic benefits of the ecosystem services provided by Rocky Mountain forests.