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Abstract

President Trump initiated a trade war with China promising to protect industries within the United States. The tariffs he imposed on Chinese imports came with the assurance that China is the country paying for all associated costs. This study determines which country is actually paying for the tariffs, despite the President’s claims. Building off prior research that examines the total monetary cost of the trade war to the United States, this study tests to see if tariff related costs to China are present, and if present, are greater than those faced by the United States. In this study, I use the large country theory to determine if the United States is large enough to influence the world price of steel imports and therefore force China to pay for the steel tariff imposed by the United States. To test this theory, I use a fixed effects regression model with Chinese steel import data. My preferred model finds that the United States is facing the same price for Chinese steel imports both before and after the enactment of the steel tariff, not accounting for the cost of the tariff. This result rejects the large country theory and suggests that the full cost of the steel tariff, once accounted for, is paid for by the United States. Furthermore, I correct for delays in market response to the steel tariff and find that the United States is paying more for Chinese steel imports after the tariff goes into effect. This suggests that the steel tariff is costing the United States even more than the cost of the tariff alone, specifically increasing the price of steel imports by $0.79 per kilogram after the tariff is imposed.

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